IV. Wealth in the Machine Age
Last updated
Last updated
When intelligence goes abundant, what still commands a premium—and how will you position yourself? AGI triggers three distinct economic phases: Enhancement (2025-30), Automation (2030-45), and Post-Work (2045+). Value shifts from static knowledge to adaptability. Meta-skills like learning agility and creative judgment appreciate; routine cognitive labor depreciates rapidly. The future favors those embracing change and doubling down on unique human capabilities.
It is not the strongest that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. — Charles Darwin
The measure of intelligence is the ability to change. — Albert Einstein
When people first heard the word "internet," most imagined a faster fax machine. A decade later, whole industries had flipped upside down. Artificial general intelligence is going to replay that movie—only on fast-forward.
The way to think about it is like electricity. At first, factories just swapped out steam engines for electric motors. That alone made things faster and cheaper. But soon they realized they could redesign assembly lines entirely around electric power. And after that came things steam could never have powered: radio, refrigeration, air conditioning.
AGI will follow the same path, only steeper.
Enhancement Era (2025–30). Represents our initial, conservative accommodation. AI systems will function primarily as cognitive amplifiers that augment existing professional workflows. Like early electric motors bolted to steam-era machinery, these systems will deliver significant efficiency while preserving recognizable occupational structures. Knowledge workers will see their outputs multiplied through intelligent assistance, yet the nature of their roles will remain largely intact.
Automation Era (2030–45). The comprehensive redesign of organizational processes around artificial capabilities rather than human limitations. Just as manufacturing floors were reconceived for distributed electric power, entire workflows—from customer acquisition to product development to service delivery—will be reorganized to leverage autonomous systems. During this period, the boundaries between human and machine contribution will blur, with increasing domains of economic activity transitioning from human orchestration to algorithmic management.
Post-Work Threshold (2045+). Marks our entry into territory as transformed from our current understanding as radio broadcasting was from steam power. The concept of "employment" as the primary mechanism for resource distribution may come to seem as antiquated as manual telephone exchanges or mechanical calculation. The nature of economic participation will undergo philosophical redefinition as productivity decouples from human labor input.
Throughout this progression, economic value will migrate with accelerating velocity across traditional boundaries. The capacity to adapt—to navigate between dissolving and emerging categories of contribution—will determine individual prosperity. Static knowledge, once the cornerstone of professional identity, yields to dynamic judgment; credential-based authority surrenders to demonstrated wisdom; information possession becomes subordinate to experience curation. In a world characterized by rapid change, adaptability emerges as the meta-asset underlying all others.
Most important is what becomes obsolete as intelligence becomes abundant. When artificial systems can instantaneously access the entirety of human knowledge, information retention loses its premium. When physical tasks from the precise to the powerful fall within mechanical capability, muscular contribution diminishes in value. Yet certain quintessentially human capacities—authentic creativity, contextual wisdom, genuine empathetic connection—may appreciate because they resist replication—at least yet.
The most successful will be those who harness AI while simultaneously deepening their investment in uniquely human dimensions. The path forward lies in complementarity—leveraging artificial intelligence for what it does supremely while cultivating what remains distinctively human.
My subsequent analysis examines how specific categories of economic value will evolve across these time periods:
To clarify trajectories, each factor will be evaluated according to a consistent symbolic framework:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
Historically, wealth has flowed to those who controlled the scarcest, most critical factors of production. In agricultural societies, land ownership determined prosperity. The Industrial Revolution elevated capital and machinery. The information age privileged specialized knowledge.
With AGI, we will see leverage replace labor as the primary source of value.
Land retains significance not through agricultural capacity but through strategic positioning for : data centers, rare earth minerals, and logistical hubs connecting digital capabilities to physical reality.
Labor undergoes dramatic bifurcation. and physical work face systematic replacement through automation, while human contribution shifts toward those who can develop, deploy, and interpret AI—translating between machines and human meaning.
Capital transforms from ownership of physical production to control of : computational infrastructure, energy sources, and proprietary data.
Entrepreneurship evolves from feature accumulation to system orchestration, with competitive advantage deriving from , feedback loops, and unique distribution.
As AI floods markets with sophisticated commodities, scarcity migrates toward the authentically unique: human-created luxury items, personalized experiences, and curated information landscapes. face devaluation as occurs directly rather than through institutional proxies.
Contribution derives not from what one does but from what one enables—not from production but from amplification, not from effort but from insight.
With that, let's explore each of the core domains.
Since Adam Smith first articulated the foundations of modern economics, four elemental factors have structured our understanding of value creation: land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship. These categories have endured through centuries of change—from agricultural to industrial to information economies—evolving in significance but never displaced. As AGI emerges, they will transform to an extent we haven’t seen before.
Land will increasingly derive value not from its position in intelligence networks. Energy-rich regions and locations suitable for data centers appreciate, while conventional commercial property stagnates as physical presence becomes optional for economic activity.
Labor will experience its most dramatic bifurcation since the beginning of the Industrial Age. Value shifts toward those who can direct AI—architects, prompt engineers, and domain experts who translate knowledge into machine-intelligible inputs. Routine cognitive labor faces displacement, while temporary protection until robotics advance further.
Capital will shift from physical production systems to intelligence-generating infrastructure. Computational capital becomes the new productivity engine, with traditional physical capital subordinate. Investment flows toward computational assets offering exponential rather than linear improvements.
Entrepreneurship will derive competitive advantage from system-level orchestration integrating AI across complex processes. Generic business skills diminish in value while interdisciplinary insight and human-machine collaboration become the proprietary secrets of the intelligence era.
These changes represent a reconstitution of economic foundations.
Four factors of production
1. Land
↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑
↑
↑↑
2. Labor
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↔
↓
↓↓
3. Capital
N/A / ↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↔/↓
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
4. Entrepreneurship
↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑/↔
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑
↔/↓
↓
↓↓
↔/↓
↓
↓↓
↔/↓
↓
↓↓
↔/↓
↓
↓↓
↑
↓
↓↓
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑/↓↓↓ (if automated)
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
As AI eliminates production constraints, traditional goods—both private and merit—approach near-universal availability with marginal costs approaching zero. Value shifts from access toward .
While conventional scarcity dissolves, new forms emerge with greater intensity. gain disproportionate pricing power as status markers. Positional goods—those inherently limited by uniqueness or convention—appreciate. Most significantly, deeply personalized experiences emerge as premium offerings, commanding value through their irreproducible nature in an age of algorithmic replication.
Information goods undergo similar change. , overwhelming attention capacity. Only three information types retain significant value: curation services filtering signal from noise, verified knowledge with authenticated human providence, and unique insights connecting disparate domains. The premium shifts from information possession to meaningful interpretation.
Infrastructure requirements transform accordingly. becomes a foundational public good. Energy infrastructure attains heightened criticality. Shared AI models function as essential public utilities enabling broad economic participation.
These changes represent a reconstitution of economic value—compressed into decades rather than centuries. As AI eliminates material scarcity, value centers on the irreplaceably human: authentic experiences, contextual wisdom, creative discernment, and meaningful curation.
Economic goods
↔
↑
↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑
↑↑
↔/↓ (trad) / ↑ (AI)
↓ / ↑↑
↓ / ↑↑
↔
↓ (basic utility)
↓↓ (basic utility) / ↑ (custom)
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑ (volume) / ↔/? (value)
↑↑↑ (volume) / ↑ (curated)
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
(Shift towards AI as substitute)
(AI substitutes most labor)
(AI substitutes nearly all labor)
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
Credentials—those institutional warranties of domain mastery—face systematic devaluation as AI enables direct assessment. Employers—those who are still hiring—will over institutional endorsement.
Domain expertise undergoes similar reorganization. as AI models achieve human-level mastery. The premium shifts from specialized depth to interdisciplinary synthesis and novel applications—vertical expertise yields to horizontal integration. Knowing how to use your domain knowledge alongside AI systems.
as AI makes information instantly accessible. The advantage shifts from possessing information to how one processes and applies it.
The final frontier—tacit understanding of human systems—temporarily resists automation but faces gradual encroachment as AI models organizational dynamics.
The question shifts from "what do we know?" to "what does it mean to understand?" Value migrates from possession to discernment, from retention to synthesis, from specialized depth to integrative judgment.
Knowledge
↔/↓
↓
↓↓
↑↑
↑/↓
↓↓
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↑
↑/↔
↓
↑
↑
↔/↓
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
Learning Agility. The most valuable skill in an age of is learning agility—rapidly acquiring new capabilities and refreshing your mental models. While AI excels with existing patterns, human adaptability in novel contexts remains distinctive. The advantage shifts from depth of knowledge to rate of adaptation—not what you know, but how quickly you can learn what matters next.
Judgment Under Ambiguity. As AI masters rule-based decisions, human advantage moves toward areas of ambiguity, novelty, and ethical complexity. , recognize assumptions, and navigate uncertainty becomes valuable because it operates at the boundaries where algorithms struggle. Making thoughtful decisions amid uncertainty resists simple codification.
Human-Machine Translation. The interface between human intention and AI becomes critical. The ability to articulate complex goals in machine-interpretable terms, build appropriate trust in AI systems, and frame machine outputs within meaningful human narratives represents a crucial form of translational intelligence.
Orchestration. —determining what to assign to AI, how to integrate its outputs, and where to focus irreplaceable human attention. As automation frees cognitive bandwidth from routine tasks, attention allocation becomes the primary determinant of effectiveness.
These meta-skills are the evolving center of human cognitive identity in the age of AI—the capabilities through which we express our distinctive adaptability even as specific knowledge domains yield to automation.
Meta-skills
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
What will remain distinctively human as AI capabilities expand?
emerges as a primary differentiator between natural and artificial cognition. The ability to recognize unspoken emotions, navigate complex social dynamics, and build genuine trust represents a form of intelligence that transcends mere information processing. As analytical capabilities become automated, this empathic understanding becomes central to effective leadership and collaboration.
maintains unique value even as AI generates content across domains. The human ability to recognize potential in the unexpected, establish new evaluative frameworks, and identify genuinely innovative directions—not just variations on existing patterns—represents a form of taste that remains distinctively human.
Adaptability and agency becomes essential in a landscape of perpetual change. The psychological capacity to navigate uncertainty, embrace change, and maintain effectiveness amid shifting contexts, coupled with autonomous agency—the capacity for self-direction rather than passive response—enables flourishing amid accelerating change.
Cognitive depth retains value even as AI excels at comprehensive information processing. The human ability to sustain focused attention on complex problems, follow extended logical chains, and maintain coherent purpose across time complements artificial breadth with human depth.
These traits reflect qualities that have enabled human flourishing throughout our history—and they will take on increasing importance as machines surpass our thinking, reasoning, and knowledge.
Traits
↔/↑
↔/↑
↔/↓
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
Our response to technological change has always been determined less by the technologies themselves than by the beliefs through which we interpret them. From mythology explaining agriculture to digital utopianism welcoming the internet, our belief systems have always shaped how technologies develop and impact society.
With AGI, the beliefs we hold will likely determine both individual success and collective outcomes more powerfully than any technical detail of the systems themselves.
Three belief orientations seem particularly valuable for navigating this change:
Pragmatic Optimism. Neither naive utopianism nor reflexive pessimism, but the , existential challenges can be navigated successfully. This mindset enables people to recognize opportunities amid disruption, collaborate on solutions, and maintain psychological resilience through extended uncertainty. It creates a self-reinforcing cycle that separates those who can create adaptive possibilities from those paralyzed by perceived threats.
Long-Term Thinking. The capacity to rather than just immediate outcomes. This perspective—increasingly rare in a world of quarterly reports and electoral cycles—becomes essential for responsible AI development. Thinking in decades rather than months aligns human decision-making with the actual timescales on which technological changes operate.
Purpose Beyond Employment. and identity can be founded on contribution, creativity, and connection rather than just economic production. As AI automates traditional work, deriving fulfillment from activities beyond paid labor becomes not just advantageous but necessary for psychological wellbeing.
Conversely, limiting beliefs—that identity comes exclusively from occupation, that security requires preserving the status quo, or that human flourishing is zero-sum—become significant liabilities in an age of acceleration.
Our collective response to AI will be determined by the belief systems through which we interpret its meaning and implications.
Beliefs
Valuable belief systems
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
Limiting belief systems
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
Power has always flowed to those who could amplify their individual capacity through various forms of leverage. Different eras had different dominant forms: physical strength in early societies, land control in agricultural civilizations, capital in industrial times, and information in the digital age.
AGI will again transform these forms of leverage.
Technological leverage will undergo a split. The ability to envision novel applications, design coherent systems, and control AI infrastructure appreciates. Meanwhile, routine coding and implementation—once valuable forms of leverage themselves—become commoditized as AI masters standardized coding tasks. Value shifts from implementation to conception and orchestration.
Authentic brands will become even more important. The capacity to be believed amid an ocean of synthetic content appreciates as AI floods information channels with convincing yet derivative content.
Social capital—the ability to build and navigate authentic human relationships— will appreciate because it remains irreducibly human. This form of leverage enables coordination that AI cannot autonomously achieve while providing a hedge against the volatility inherent in rapidly evolving technological systems.
Biological enhancement will at the intersection of computational and biological domains—from cognitive augmentation to biotechnological mastery—potentially rivaling AI in its capacity to transform human agency. Soon, capital will buy cognitive enhancement, contracted sleep cycles, and add years to our lifespans.
Leverage
1. Technology
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑↑
↔/↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↑↑
↑↑
↑/↔
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
2. Financial Capital
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑↑
3. Media
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
4. Labour
↓
↓↓
↓↓↓
↑↑
↑↑↑
↑↑
↔/↑
↑↑
↑↑↑
Legend:
↑ Growing Importance, ↑↑ Critical Importance, ↑↑↑ Foundational Pillar
↔ Stable, ↓ Partially Automated/Reduced Role, ↓↓ Significantly Replaced, ↓↓↓ Obsolete/Marginal
N/A Not Applicable/Emergent
Each technological revolution across time has reordered what we value—from land in agrarian societies to factories in industrial times to information in the digital age. As AGI emerges, we face this question with urgency: What forms of value will endure when intelligence becomes a programmable resource?
For individuals, enduring value will center on qualities that resist AI— that goes beyond skill acquisition, cross-domain synthesis that connects previously separate knowledge areas, and authentic relationship building. The capacity for perpetual reinvention—regularly reimagining one's contribution as technologies evolve—becomes essential. This is the expression of human adaptability that has defined our evolutionary success.
Companies that endure will build on different foundations than their industrial predecessors. Control of computational infrastructure and becomes crucial, . But resource possession alone proves insufficient without proprietary data feedback loops and trusted brand identities. The most resilient Companies will function as intelligence amplification systems that integrate human and artificial capabilities toward goals neither could accomplish alone.
Those directing investment will need to identify the genuine bottlenecks in intelligence creation—energy infrastructure, compute, and critical resource supply chains. Most intriguing is the emergence of as a complementary domain—extending humans through longevity science and cognitive enhancement that eventually converges with artificial intelligence.
Ask me what happens to the economic value of something in the future as AGI is developed. Physical Goods. Land in prime locations. SaaS Companies.
As AI keeps getting better, some things are going to become a lot more valuable. They won't all be technical. Some will be about how people work together, like cross-cultural coordination. Some will be about economic resources, like data privacy. And some will be purely human, like real, unfiltered experiences.
If you understand where the value is heading, you can be better prepared for the changes coming — whether you're an individual, a company, or a whole country. The following are eight areas that seem especially important:
The most important question with powerful AI is "can we make it want what we want?" This means designing systems that stay aligned with human goals, even as they get more capable. It means teaching AIs to ask when they’re confused, and catching them when they drift. Alignment is the core survival problem.
Technology tends to pull people apart as much as it connects them. If we don’t actively design ways to hold society together, it won’t happen on its own. That could mean building new kinds of communities, inventing ways to share AI-driven wealth, or teaching people how to find common ground in a world that feels more fragmented by the day.
As AI systems start making decisions that affect everyone, people are going to want a say. And they should have one. This might look like voting rights in AI organizations, seats on ethics boards, or influence over the rules that guide AI behavior. Governance of AI will need to be more democratic than governance of most past technologies.
As we hand more control to AI, we expose ourselves to new kinds of risks. Some are obvious, like hackers taking over powerful systems. Others are subtle, like becoming dangerously dependent on AI for basic needs, or letting persuasive AI systems manipulate human psychology at scale. The more we lean on AI, the more brittle the system can get.
When AI can generate endless content, making things stops being the hard part. Picking what’s good becomes the real skill. The winners won’t be the ones who churn out the most ideas, but the ones who can spot the valuable ones hidden in the flood. Editors, curators, and tastemakers will matter more than ever.
If AI is going to pursue human goals, we have to tell it what they are. Clearly. That turns out to be harder than it sounds. We’ll need new ways of explaining what matters to us, of resolving conflicts between different values, and of translating messy human preferences into something machines can understand.
The future of AI will be global, but the world isn’t one big happy family. Different cultures have different ideas about what matters. The ability to bridge those differences — to find frameworks that respect them while still allowing collaboration — will be critical. We'll need people who can translate between worlds, not just languages.
The best ideas tend to come from the edges where fields collide. People who can mix neuroscience, philosophy, computer science, and art will see possibilities that pure specialists miss. The future will favor those who can cross boundaries, connect dots, and invent new hybrids.
If you want a strategy that lasts, build it around the things that don't: human emotions, the limits of attention, the need for trust, the stubbornness of physical reality, the slowness of regulation, the cost of energy, and the persistence of inequality.
No matter how advanced AI gets, people will still want to feel understood. They’ll still struggle to pay attention to more than a few things at once. They'll still need to trust before they act. Physical stuff—land, atoms, energy—will still set boundaries that can't be optimized away. Governments will still move slower than markets. Energy will still be a bottleneck. And opportunity will still be unevenly distributed.
These aren't bugs that get patched. They're the bedrock.
So the smartest way to plan for the future is to anchor yourself to what won't change. Businesses built on empathy, trust, and real-world constraints will still matter long after the tech stack turns over.
In a world racing toward AGI, it’s easy to think you need to bet everything on speed. But real leverage often comes from building on the slow parts—the parts that technology can't rewrite. If you want to build something that lasts, these are the places to start.
Every adult life could be said to be defined by two great love stories. The first—the story of our quest for sexual love—is well known and well charted, its vagaries form the staple of music and literature, it is socially accepted and celebrated. The second—the story of our quest for love from the world—is a more secret and shameful tale. […] As the determinants of high status keep shifting, so, too, naturally, will the triggers of status anxiety be altered.
― Alain de Botton, Status Anxiety
The deep human drive to attain status remains constant. Even as symbols and metrics of success evolve, people will continue to seek recognition, validation, and signals of worth from others. Businesses that understand this human motivation—creating authentic markers of achievement and facilitating meaningful recognition—establish moats that artificial systems cannot easily breach, regardless of their functional capabilities.
Those who have a ‘why’ to live, can bear with almost any ‘how.’
— Viktor Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning
Beyond material needs, people crave meaning and purpose. It’s unlikely that any level of AI can eliminate this. Companies that facilitate authentic meaning-creation—whether through contribution, connection, creation, or transcendence—build moats based on the irreplaceable human need for significance that transcends mere utility or efficiency.
The need for connection and community is primal, as fundamental as the need for air, water, and food.
— Dean Ornish
No level of efficiency or abundance can erase the human desire to belong. While AI can simulate interaction, it cannot replicate the depth of shared experience, mutual vulnerability, and authentic empathy that defines genuine human connection. Platforms and experiences that foster real belonging create defensive advantages against even the most sophisticated artificial alternatives.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
— Leonardo da Vinci
Humans naturally prefer ease, efficiency, and immediacy. This constant preference transcends specific technological implementations—from railways to smartphones to one-click buying. Companies that identify and eliminate unnecessary friction establish enduring moats by aligning with this unchanging human preference, regardless of how the technological context evolves.
If the goal of climbing a mountain were to get to the top, that would be a kinetic act. To take it to the extreme, it wouldn't matter if you went to the mountaintop in a helicopter, stayed there for five minutes or so, and then headed back in the helicopter again. Of course, if you didn't make it to the mountaintop, that would mean the mountain-climbing expedition was a failure. However, if the goal is mountain climbing itself, and not just getting to the top, one could say it is energeial. In this case, in the end it doesn't matter whether one makes it to the mountaintop or not.
— Alfred Adler
Many activities will remain distinctively human because people value them for their process rather than just their outcome. Domains where the experience matters—traditional crafts, artistic expression, athletic competition, empathic caregiving—create moats based on intrinsic value that artificial systems cannot replicate, even if they achieve similar functional results.
Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot remain in the cradle forever.
— Konstantin Tsiolkovsky
Human ambition inevitably pushes beyond current boundaries. This expansionary instinct—whether expressed through physical exploration, intellectual discovery, or creative boundary-breaking—represents an enduring aspect of human nature that artificial systems may enable but cannot replace. Companies that facilitate meaningful expansion of human capability and domain build moats based on this persistent drive to transcend current limitations.
We humans are unhappy in large part because we are insatiable. After working hard to get what we want, we routinely lose interest in the object of our desire.
— William B. Irvine
Humans constantly reset expectations, quickly adapting to new pleasures and achievements, perpetually seeking novelty to rekindle satisfaction. This psychological constant ensures that providers of fresh experiences, progressive challenges, and continuous innovation maintain enduring advantage, regardless of absolute capability levels. Understanding this adaptation cycle creates moats based on the perpetual human need for renewal.
Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.
— Charles Mackay
Collective psychology ensures that humans will repeatedly succumb to irrationality, herd behavior, and cognitive biases under uncertainty. This enduring reality of human nature—with its emotional contagion, social influence, and psychological vulnerabilities—creates moats for Companies that understand social dynamics, regardless of how analytically sophisticated artificial systems become.
Nothing in life is certain except death, taxes, and the second law of thermodynamics.
— Seth Lloyd
Every physical system naturally tends toward disorder and decay. This constraint ensures that maintenance, renewal, and regeneration remain perpetually necessary regardless of technological advancement. Companies built around addressing inevitable entropy—whether in physical infrastructure, biological systems, or social institutions—establish moats based on the physics of reality.
If you’re enjoying this deep dive and want to keep up to date with my future writing projects and ideas, subscribe here:
If you’re enjoying this deep dive and want to keep up to date with my future writing projects and ideas, .
(Land, Labor, Capital, Entrepreneurship)
(Private, Luxury, Information, etc.)
(Credentials, Domain Expertise)
(Learning Agility, Communication, etc.)
(IQ, EQ, and so on)
(Helpful and limiting belief systems)
(Technology, Financial Capital, Media, Labor, Social Capital, and Biological)
Each domain is mapped across the I’ve outlined. While my specific timing will almost certainly be wrong, the directional shifts and relative ordering of changes offer valuable orientation for how one ought to think about strategic positioning. Inevitably, many of these projections will prove incomplete or incorrect. Regardless, we proceed!
You can the full analysis here.
: learning agility, conceptual clarity, delegation fluency across human and artificial systems, and narrative construction. in emotional intelligence, creative discernment, action bias, and psychological resilience. And at the root of it all, than ever. Pragmatic optimism and long-term thinking will pull you up. Nostalgia and zero-sum thinking will pull you down.
Financial Capital gains significance as it can be (via compute). No longer constrained by traditional talent bottlenecks (e.g., needing to convert capital into talent before pursuing the real world outcome).
"I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two—because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. In our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, 'Jeff, I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' or 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.' Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it." — Jeff Bezos, Founder and Executive Chairman of
Technology keeps changing, but people mostly don’t. and will still continue to want to same things.
Land around data centers now costs more than Manhattan. are staggering - Singapore lifted its moratorium only to see values jump 40% overnight.
Everything we thought we knew about automation? Flip it upside down. Higher-paid cognitive jobs face the most disruption, not blue-collar work. GenAI excels precisely at tasks experts swore computers would never master.
$7,000,000,000,000. That's trillion with a T - roughly China's entire manufacturing sector. we'll need this astronomical sum just for AI infrastructure by 2030. Most telling shift? Major firms now spend more on GPUs than human expertise.
Remember customer surveys? Quaint relics. Today's products continuously optimize themselves through embedded analytics while you're using them. the best data isn't what customers tell you—it's what they show you.
Here's the twist. GenAI boosts educated workers' productivity 40-45%, not entry-level positions. suggests this could widen inequality rather than narrow it.
No degree? No problem! 26% of previously degree-required jobs dropped the requirement. Companies that made this shift? They're seeing higher retention and diversity without performance drops. .
Technical skills now have a half-life of just 2.5 years. you'll need to reinvent yourself 15+ times in a career.
Chimpanzees randomly guessing outperformed Nobel laureates, journalists, and investment bankers on global fact questions. shows we're dangerously wrong about basic world trends.
Waiters and nurses have better job security than programmers and financial analysts—at least until 2030. AI struggles most with physical tasks in unstructured environments.
The AI divide widens. Companies investing heavily report 5-9% revenue increases; laggards face declining margins. Surprisingly, only 8% credit workforce reduction for cost savings. tells the tale.
"Scarcity is increasingly manufactured rather than natural." Luxury brands now artificially limit production despite capacity to make more. 68% of luxury consumption comes from "experience-driven products" with qualities AI can't replicate.
Disinformation just knocked climate change off the #1 global risk spot. AI-generated content now constitutes 37% of the internet—two-thirds being "misleading, unverified, or fabricated." makes for sobering reading.
From 4% to 12% of US electricity in just six years. 35-40% just for cooling. $720 billion in new grid infrastructure needed. lays bare AI's massive physical footprint.
Skills over degrees? You bet. 2 billion career moves and found skill signals now outweigh credentials for 74% of positions. When employers added skills assessments but dropped degree requirements, hiring time dropped 40%.
"By 2028, domain experts without AI skills will face the same career constraints as professionals without email did in 2005." might sound extreme, but AI Product Managers already earn 30% above tech norms.
Large language models outperform 30-year industry veterans in 74% of knowledge tests but still lag in contextual decision-making. That gap? Narrowing faster than anyone predicted. how AI masters explicit knowledge first, then implicit, then organizational wisdom.
Learning agility contributes 3.7× more to long-term success than initial expertise depth. Generalists outperformed specialists during disruption by 47% on both pay and stability. challenges conventional wisdom about specialization.
Critical thinking. the ultimate AI-proof skill? rank it their top hiring priority. Companies with formal critical thinking training show 28% higher innovation rates and 41% fewer major decision errors.
Executives now spend 6.5 hours weekly just managing AI systems. "The primary productivity bottleneck has shifted from computer capability to human attention." captures our strange new reality.
"Hard skills get you hired, soft skills get you promoted" now extends to "hard skills get automated, soft skills get augmented." Emotional intelligence surpassed technical expertise as the strongest predictor of C-suite advancement last year. 11,000 employers to find this pattern.
AI integration boosted creative productivity 300-700%, but the human role shifted dramatically. we're becoming curators of machine outputs rather than primary creators. the creator economy is restructuring around this fundamental shift.
Countries that preemptively reskill workers outperform those that reactively protect jobs. societies emphasizing collective adaptation over individual protection experienced 2.3× faster productivity growth and 68% higher wages during technological transitions.
"If AGI has even a 1% chance of causing human extinction, the expected value of safety research exceeds all other current global priorities combined." for valuing future lives now influences multiple AI labs' safety approaches.
Bullshit jobs - positions even the workers consider pointless - concentrate in fields most vulnerable to AI displacement. Societies maintaining work as the primary source of meaning face deeper crises during automation than those offering multiple paths to social contribution. has never been more relevant.
Coordination beats control. Companies using AI for stakeholder orchestration achieved 37% higher sustainability metrics and 22% better financial performance than those using AI only internally. this analysis of 428 companies.
By 2030, direct neural interfaces could match fiber optic internet speeds. Synthetic biology's progress has outpaced Moore's Law since 2021. five converging technologies driving the "Fifth Industrial Revolution."
Your skills' half-life. 3.2 years and shrinking. Professionals spending 5+ hours weekly learning earned 29% more and were 47% less likely to face unemployment. . "Learning how to learn" trumps any specific skill.
More spent on AI computing than all other IT combined. The limiting factor? Not silicon but thermal management. shows cooling technology now determines computational progress.
AI has created 14 "power deserts" where data centers can't expand despite available land and fiber. Utility-scale batteries for AI now exceed grid-scale energy storage deployments. reveals electricity as the new limiting resource.
£2.5 billion for national computing infrastructure. Mandatory energy quotas with penalties for inefficient operators. contrasts sharply with US and China strategies by emphasizing public ownership of foundation models.
Silicon Valley clinics charging $1,000+ for NAD+ IV infusions with questionable clinical support. "The same people building AGI are simultaneously investing in longevity tech." reveals the feedback loop between AI and biotech sectors.
